DIY Asymmetric Weapons With Symmetric Weapons And Bayescraft

April 9, 2021Posted inMajorTags:
Epistemic status: Follow-up to this post. Fairly well considered, few hours total epistemic effort. Substantially more confident than before that this is correct, but still feel very ick about it. An asymmetric weapon is any strategy that has a higher probability of winning p(Win) if it is aligned with one side its axis of asymmetry than with the other. In other words, p(Win | X) > p(Win | ~X). This…

The “Ratchets vs Springs” Heuristic

April 3, 2021Posted inMinorTags:
Epistemic status: this feels like it's been helpful for me to allocate my time better, but I have very scarce concrete support for that. Reasoning feels clean from the inside though. A lot of the problems I face day-to-day can be boiled down to figuring out how to spend some finite pool of resources to maximize some function. When deciding what course I want to take on this kind of…

I Have Changed My Mind About Asymmetric Weapons

March 21, 2021Posted inMinorTags: 1 Comment
Epistemic status: one step of reasoning away from this LessWrong post. Very nervous about correctness of final conclusion, but can't pin down very well if that's actual uncertainty or just not liking where it leads. Asymmetric and symmetric weapons are a notion popularized by Scott Alexander, via these two Slate Star Codex posts. To briefly summarize, an asymmetric weapon is a strategy that's more effective for pursuing some goals than…

We Should Be Testing Frameworks

March 20, 2021Posted inMinorTags:
Epistemic status: based mainly on Tetlock's research and thinking of knowledge as predictive power. Really only one major inferential step - "if it works it works, and now we can actually tell if it does!" Overview I hear the word "framework" tossed around a lot in academia and adjacent circles. Until very recently, I thought the word was at best just a bit of decorative academ-ese, an excuse to use…

Math, Science, and Logic Are Predictive Models

March 18, 2021Posted inMajorTags: , 1 Comment
Epistemic status: content summarized and synthesized (0-1 steps of reasoning) from the Sequences by Eliezer Yudkowsky. Unreasonable Effectiveness I’ve heard several people – professors, peers, and folks on the internet – express surprise at the "unreasonable effectiveness” of mathematics in describing the physical universe. In other words, they claim to be surprised that mathematical laws are able to describe the workings of the universe so precisely. From a certain point…

(It’s Useful To Imagine That Maybe) This is The Dawn Age

March 18, 2021Posted inMinorTags:
Epistemic status: not very thoroughly considered. First experiment with posting rough content, mostly on a whim and some spare time, slapped together in one session. The Hinge of History Hypothesis (HHH) suggests that the present, broadly defined, may be the most important time in the entire history of mankind for determining how well or poorly things go for us in the long term. There are a few lines of reasoning…

Discuss the Substance, Not the Symbol

March 13, 2021Posted inMajorTags: ,
Epistemic status: content summarized and synthesized (0-1 steps of reasoning) from the Sequences by Eliezer Yudkowsky, specifically A Human's Guide to Words. Guiding Puzzle: Is X a Y? Questions of the form "is X a Y" are all over the place, and a huge amount of cognitive power goes into trying to answer them. Some of them are fun or trivial, like "is water wet" or "is cereal a soup".…